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Modelling the spread and control of a malaria vector

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death, particularly in Africa and among children.

Modelling to support Australia's COVID-19 response

Nick Golding BSc DPhil Honorary Research Fellow Nick.Golding@thekids.org.au Honorary Research Fellow Professor Nick Golding is the UWA Chair in

The Vector Atlas

The Vector Atlas aims to update and create vector species maps and spatial products that improve disease prediction, mitigation and preparedness.

Estimating the potential malaria morbidity and mortality avertable by the US President's Malaria Initiative in 2025: a geospatial modelling analysis

Since its inception in 2005, the US President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a major role in the reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality observed across Africa. With the status of PMI funding and operations currently uncertain, we aimed to quantify the impact that a fully functioning PMI would have on malaria cases and deaths in Africa during 2025. 

Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19

Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning. 

Temporal analysis of respiratory virus epidemics in Victoria over winter 2024

During winter months of temperate regions, concurrent epidemics of multiple respiratory pathogens can occur, causing periods of increased clinical burden. Case time series, which are predominantly used to monitor infection levels, can exhibit substantial noise and day-of-the-week effects, limiting the visual interpretation of trends in raw data.

A time-varying geospatial model of habitat suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus vectors and vertebrate hosts in Australia

In the austral summer of 2021-2022, Australia experienced an unprecedented Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak, with detections over 3000 km south of previous occurrences. Given the limited knowledge of JEV transmission ecology in Australia, we developed geospatial models of transmission risk to support the public health response. We created time-varying habitat suitability models for suspected mosquito vectors and ardeid hosts using month-scaled occurrence and covariate data from 2000-2023.

Characterization and individual-level prediction of cognitive state in the first year after ‘mild’ stroke

Mild stroke affects more than half the stroke population, yet there is limited evidence characterizing cognition over time in this population, especially with predictive approaches applicable at the individual-level. We aimed to identify patterns of recovery and the best combination of demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors predicting individual-level cognitive state at 3- and 12-months after mild stroke.

Infectious Disease Ecology and Modelling

The Infectious Disease Ecology and Modelling team led by Professor Nick Golding, combines mathematical and statistical modelling, ecology, and public health to address malaria and other infectious and vector-borne diseases. The team uses modelling and maps to measure the risk posed by some of the world’s most important and neglected diseases – including malaria, Japanese Encephalitis and COVID-19 – and provide rapid modelling analyses to policy makers.

Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a ‘National Plan’ to reopening

The availability of COVID-19 vaccines promised a reduction in the severity of disease and relief from the strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) imposed in many countries to limit spread and burden of COVID-19. We were asked to define vaccine coverage thresholds for Australia's transition to easing restrictions and reopening international borders.