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Estimating the potential malaria morbidity and mortality avertable by the US President's Malaria Initiative in 2025: a geospatial modelling analysisSince its inception in 2005, the US President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a major role in the reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality observed across Africa. With the status of PMI funding and operations currently uncertain, we aimed to quantify the impact that a fully functioning PMI would have on malaria cases and deaths in Africa during 2025.
The Global Disease Modelling group informs development and implementation of drugs, medical treatments and non-medical interventions to effectively tackle disease. They build mathematical models of diseases, designed to take into account the complex constellation of interactions between pathogens, humans, diseases, the environment and entire healthcare systems.
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Julian HengJulian is the Program Manager for the Global Disease Modelling team at The Kids Research Institute Australia.
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Epke Annelie Le RutteEpke is a veterinarian that specializes in infectious disease control, and holds a PhD in human neglected tropical disease (NTD) control and elimination.
Research
Performance characteristics and potential public health impact of improved pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines targeting childhood burdenNew malaria vaccine development builds on groundbreaking recommendations and roll-out of two approved pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEVs); RTS,S/AS01 and R21/Matrix-M. Whilst these vaccines are effective in reducing childhood malaria within yearly routine immunization programs or seasonal vaccination, there is little evidence on how different PEV efficacies, durations of protection, and spacing between doses influence the potential to avert uncomplicated and severe childhood malaria.
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AnophelesModel: An R package to interface mosquito bionomics, human exposure and intervention effects with models of malaria intervention impactIn recent decades, field and semi-field studies of malaria transmission have gathered geographic-specific information about mosquito ecology, behaviour and their sensitivity to interventions. Mathematical models of malaria transmission can incorporate such data to infer the likely impact of vector control interventions and hence guide malaria control strategies in various geographies.
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Maternal and neonatal outcomes after infection with monkeypox virus clade I during pregnancy in DR Congo: a pooled, prospective cohort studyMonkeypox virus (MPXV) has been linked to vertical transmission, but systematic data are scarce. We aimed to describe the sociodemographic, clinical, and virological characteristics and assess the frequency and determinants of adverse outcomes in pregnant women with MPXV clade I infection.
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Barriers to uptake and implementation of malaria chemoprevention in school-aged children: a stakeholder engagement meeting reportMalaria is a leading cause of death in school-aged children in sub-Saharan Africa, and non-fatal chronic malaria infections are associated with anaemia, school absence and decreased learning, preventing children from reaching their full potential. Malaria chemoprevention has led to substantial reductions in malaria in younger children in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria, 2000-22: a spatial and temporal modelling studyMalaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps of malaria prevalence, incidence, and mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease and to inform strategic malaria control efforts. We present the latest such maps, the first since 2019, which cover the years 2000–22. The maps are accompanied by administrative-level summaries and include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on malaria burden.
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Public health impact of current and proposed age-expanded perennial malaria chemoprevention: a modelling studyIn 2022, the World Health Organization extended their guidelines for perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) from infants to children up to 24 months old. However, evidence for PMC's public health impact is primarily limited to children under 15 months. Further research is needed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PMC, and the added benefit of further age-expansion. We integrated an individual-based model of malaria with pharmacological models of drug action to address these questions for PMC and a proposed age-expanded schedule (referred as PMC+, for children 03-36 months).